Sunday, January 24

Updated Bill James Red Sox 2010 Projections:

Nothing like using a Sunday night to stress over the upcoming Red Sox season (pitchers and catchers in 23 days now). Below are some extracted Bill James predictions for 2010. Recently added player's numbers (Scutaro, Beltre, etc) are based on them being in their prior lineups.


Personally, I think he might be bullish on Ortiz, and hopefully bearish on Lester and Lackey....and no player going over a hundy spot in RBI? That would be concerning, no matter how good the run prevention strategy pans out.



Apologies for the formatting difficulties, it's nearly midnight after a rough weekend...you understand....

Player AVG 2B HR RBI OBP OPS

Ellsbury .302 32 9 62 360 780

Pedroia .307 50 15 75 378 844

Martinez .298 36 18 78 377 841


Youkilis .289 42 23 95 394 886


Drew .269 30 22 76 385 859


Beltre* .269 29 17 68 321 760


Ortiz .264 34 29 99 369 888


Cameron* .237 32 23 74 328 756


Scutaro* .264 30 10 57 347 728



Bench

Hermida* .267 30 20 77 360 797 [projected FT value]


Hall* .234 15 7 27 298 706 [projected 218 abs ]


Varitek .229 13 9 34 332 719 [projected 253 abs ]



Pitching

Player W L ERA IP WHIP K/9

Beckett 15 9 3.62 221.0 1.23 8.39


Lester 13 10 3.84 206.0 1.36 8.04


Lackey* 13 10 3.81 208.0 1.28 7.18


Matsuzaka 12 10 4.02 195.0 1.37 8.49


Buchholz 10 8 3.91 161.0 1.32 8.66


Atchison** 1 1 4.32 25.0 1.40 7.20


Delcarmen 4 3 3.72 58.0 1.40 8.38


Ramirez 5 3 3.82 73.0 1.36 7.77


Okajima 4 2 3.26 58.0 1.21 8.22


Bard 4 2 3.06 53.0 1.23 11.89


Papelbon 5 3 2.38 68.0 1.04 9.93


Wakefield 6 5 4.03 96.0 1.31 5.81 [projected 16 games]



* Projections made based on former team

** Marcel projections

Projected won loss 94-68.


Good enough? Or still not cutting it? In the AL East...it's questionable.

2 comments:

Soxin10' said...

I would have serious concerns if those starting pitching numbers come true. I guess he's expecting the run prevention strategy to pay off when he projects 94 wins with some of those numbers.

If Dice-K comes through with his projected numbers then ok, but everyone else's are lower than I'm hoping for(except maybe Beckett)

See How Much I Poured? said...

Totally agree, that was one of my biggest issues with the projections....that and Ortiz hitting close to 35 taters again.

No reason to think that Lester, Lackey and Buchholz can't put up better numbers than he's projecting. Then again, we can't assume anything in Boston.

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